Executive Summary

Q1 2025 delivered mixed headline results: revenue grew 8% year over year to $3.665B, Adjusted EBITDA rose 20% to $616M, and diluted EPS improved to $1.57; however, both revenue and EPS missed Wall Street consensus on adverse March Madness outcomes despite structural margin expansion to 14.1% in U.S. sportsbook .
U.S. led growth: revenue +18% y/y with iGaming +32%; International was +1% nominal (+3% cc), with strength in SEA and CEE offset by APAC sportsbook and Brazil re-registration friction .
Guidance adjusted for M&A (Snai, NSX), FX and sports results: Group revenue midpoint raised to $17.08B and Adjusted EBITDA to $3.18B; U.S. total revenue/EBITDA trimmed on sports results, while International raised meaningfully; share buybacks continued ($230M in Q1) .
Key near-term catalysts: rollout of “Your Way” outcome-based pricing across major sports, sustained U.S. iGaming momentum (1M AMPs), Italy integration synergies (EUR 70M over three years), and potential lottery bid in Italy; sports-result normalization and basketball handle recovery are watch points .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well
- U.S. leadership strengthened: sportsbook net revenue margin reached 7.8% with structural revenue margin at 14.1%; iGaming revenue grew 32% and U.S. Adjusted EBITDA increased to $161M (5x y/y), demonstrating operating leverage .
- iGaming milestones: FanDuel hit 1M AMPs and launched site-wide jackpots and exclusive content (e.g., Huff ‘n Puff), supporting higher engagement and frequency .
- Strategic M&A and synergies: Snai closed (Apr 30); management targets EUR 70M synergies over three years with decisions on organization/technology already made; NSX expected mid-May to form Flutter Brazil .
- Quote: “Our proprietary pricing capability continues to drive our market‑leading sportsbook product and drive our expected structural gross revenue margin progression, reaching 14.1% in the quarter.”
What Went Wrong
- Sports results headwind: unprecedented winning favorites in March Madness drove customer-friendly outcomes; U.S. revenue/EBITDA reduced by $230M/$150M in Q1 (April additional $50M/$30M), weighing on consensus comparison .
- Basketball handle softness: structurally lower competitiveness and larger spreads depressed NBA regular-season handle; management flagged disproportionate impact given scale .
- Cash flow optics: operating cash flow fell 44% and FCF decreased 52% on lower player wallet balances due to weekday quarter-end timing (transitory) .
- Brazil re-registration friction: Brazil revenue −44% y/y from new market processes, though ARPU uplift and NSX performance remained solid .

Financial Results

Metric	Q3 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
Revenue ($USD Billions)	$3.248	$3.792	$3.665
Diluted EPS ($)	($0.58)	$0.45	$1.57
Adjusted EPS ($)	$0.43	$2.94	$1.59
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$450	$655	$616
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)	13.9%	17.3%	16.8%
Net Income Margin (%)	(3.5%)	4.1%	9.1%

vs Wall Street Consensus

Metric	Q3 2024 Estimate*	Q3 2024 Actual	Q4 2024 Estimate*	Q4 2024 Actual	Q1 2025 Estimate*	Q1 2025 Actual
Revenue ($USD Billions)	$3.147*	$3.248	$3.771*	$3.792	$3.700*	$3.665
Primary EPS ($)	$0.233*	$0.43	$1.833*	$2.94	$1.887*	$1.59

Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment Breakdown and KPIs

Segment	Q3 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
US Revenue ($USD Billions)	$1.250	$1.611	$1.666
US Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$58	$163	$161
International/Ex-US Revenue ($USD Billions)	Group Ex-US: $1.998	Group Ex-US: $2.181	International: $1.999
International/Ex-US Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	Group Ex-US: $392	Group Ex-US: $492	International: $518

Note: Segmentation changed in 2025 to US and International; 2024 “Group Ex‑US” aggregates UKI, International and Australia .

US KPIs	Q3 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
AMPs (‘000s)	3,211	4,561	4,312
Sportsbook Stakes ($USD Millions)	10,037	16,379	14,606
Sportsbook Net Revenue Margin (%)	8.2%	6.7%	7.8%
iGaming Revenue ($USD Millions)	368	441	472
Structural Gross Revenue Margin (%)	12.8%	14.5%	14.1%

International KPIs	Q3 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
AMPs (‘000s)	4,411 (UKI) / 1,197 (Aus)	4,706 (UKI) / 1,275 (Aus)	10,568 (International)
Sportsbook Stakes ($USD Millions)	1,421 (Intl) / 2,684 (Aus)	1,581 (Intl) / 2,857 (Aus)	6,912 (International)
Sportsbook Net Revenue Margin (%)	11.3% (Intl) / 13.8% (Aus)	13.5% (Intl) / 12.1% (Aus)	12.7% (International)
iGaming Revenue ($USD Millions)	589 (Intl)	626 (Intl)	1,050 (International)

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance Midpoint	Current Guidance Midpoint	Change
Group Revenue ($)	FY 2025	$15.93B	$17.08B	Raised
Group Adjusted EBITDA ($)	FY 2025	$3.16B	$3.18B	Slight Raise
US Total Revenue ($)	FY 2025	$7.68B	$7.40B	Lowered (sports results)
US Total Adjusted EBITDA ($)	FY 2025	$1.31B	$1.13B	Lowered (sports results)
US Existing States Revenue ($)	FY 2025	$7.72B	$7.44B	Lowered (updated base)
US Existing States Adjusted EBITDA ($)	FY 2025	$1.40B	$1.22B	Lowered (updated base)
US New States Rev/EBITDA	FY 2025	($40M)/($90M)	($40M)/($90M)	Maintained
International Revenue ($)	FY 2025	$8.25B	$9.68B	Raised (M&A, FX)
International Adjusted EBITDA ($)	FY 2025	$2.08B	$2.30B	Raised
Unallocated Corporate Overhead ($)	FY 2025	$230M	$250M	Increased (FX, investment)
Interest Expense, net ($)	FY 2025	$360–$380M	$480–$500M	Increased
D&A ex acquired intangibles ($)	FY 2025	~ $580M	~ $670M	Increased
Capital Expenditure ($)	FY 2025	~ $710M	~ $820M	Increased
Share Repurchases	FY 2025	Up to $1B	Up to $1B	Maintained
M&A Contribution	FY 2025	Excluded	+$1.07B revenue; +$120M EBITDA (Snai $850M/$190M; NSX $220M/−$70M)	Added

Assumptions include sports results at expected margins, current FX, and consistent regulatory/tax frameworks .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q3 2024)	Previous Mentions (Q4 2024)	Current Period (Q1 2025)	Trend
Outcome-based pricing / “Your Way”	Trial in two states; parlay penetration up, live features added	Rolled out for NFL; structural margin +100bps to 14.5%	Enabled for NBA playoffs; long-term capability rollout; structural margin 14.1%	Accelerating
Sports results volatility	Favorable results aided U.S. Q3 margins	Most customer-friendly NFL in ~20 years; adverse impact	March Madness winning favorites; Q1 adverse impact quantified	Normalizing over time
Handle trends (basketball)	Shift to higher-margin, lower-handle SGP products	Moderation vs Q2/Q3; continued migration to SGP	Softer NBA regular-season handle; MLB trends encouraging; scale effects	Softness in NBA; offsets elsewhere
U.S. iGaming momentum	+46% revenue; AMPs +43%	+43% revenue; AMPs +37%	+32% revenue; 1M AMPs; jackpots and exclusive content	Strengthening
Regulatory/tax updates	Victoria tax hike impact flagged (Australia)	Illinois tax increase affecting U.S. margins	IL tax partially mitigated; Brazil re-registration friction; Italy lotto bid	Managing headwinds
M&A integration	MaxBet integrated; NSX/Snai announced	NSX/Snai on track Q2 2025	Snai closed; NSX expected mid-May; EUR 70M synergies target	Executing
Capital returns	Program announced; first tranche Q4 launch	$121M repurchases	891k shares; $230M repurchases; $1B expected in 2025	Ongoing
International performance	Sisal share gains; India mixed due to tax	UKI strength; International growth	SEA +14%; CEE +15%; APAC mixed; Brazil −44%	Solid, diversified

Management Commentary

“FanDuel continues to win in the US, retaining leadership positions in both online sports betting and iGaming…we saw a positive performance within International, where our scale…have been enhanced by the acquisition of Snai in Italy.”
“Adjusted EBITDA of $161 million was more than five times higher [than] the prior year, as our business delivered significant operating leverage.”
“Available cash remained unchanged quarter on quarter at approximately $1.5 billion…Net debt for the quarter was $5.3 billion, with our leverage ratio of 2.2x.”
“Group revenue is now expected to be $17.08 billion at the midpoint, with adjusted EBITDA of $3.18 billion for the year…”
“Your Way is…one of the first…examples of the new underlying capability…we’ve re‑architected our pricing risk management capabilities…long‑term set of initiatives.”

Q&A Highlights

U.S. handle dynamics: Basketball-specific softness due to less competitive matchups and larger spreads; impact may be slightly disproportionate given Flutter’s scale; playoffs engagement strong; MLB handle trends encouraging .
iGaming execution: First-party content, jackpots, rewards mechanics and unique launches (e.g., Huff ‘n Puff) driving engagement; AMPs hit 1M; long-term content-plus-jackpots strategy to drive revenue and potential cost benefits (lower rev share) .
Italy/Snai integration: Clear synergy plan (EUR 70M over three years), common stack, operating model optimization, organizational/tech decisions made; omnichannel cross-sell expected .
Prediction markets: Betfair Exchange expertise leveraged; cautious view on impact in regulated sportsbook states; exploring opportunities including states without sports betting .
Promotions: Ex-NC comps imply broadly flat underlying generosity; conviction on focusing net revenue over handle; expectation that extreme generosity by tier 2/3 operators is unsustainable .

Estimates Context

Q1 2025 missed consensus: revenue $3.665B vs $3.700B*; primary EPS $1.59 vs $1.887*—driven by customer-friendly March Madness, despite structural margin expansion and strong iGaming .
Prior quarters beat: Q4 2024 revenue $3.792B vs $3.771B* and adjusted EPS $2.94 vs $1.833* (benefited by U.S. tax credit on historic losses and structural margin expansion); Q3 2024 revenue $3.248B vs $3.147B* and adjusted EPS $0.43 vs $0.233* .
Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Where estimates may need to adjust:

U.S. basketball handle softness and quantified sports result headwinds (Q1 + April) suggest near-term EPS/revenue revisions lower; inclusion of Snai/NSX, FX and structural margin progression may offset at Group level in FY guidance .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Structural moat in pricing: Outcome-based “Your Way” and FlutterEdge continue to expand structural margins (14.1% U.S. sportsbook); expect monetization as rollout scales across sports/seasons .
U.S. iGaming growth durable: 1M AMPs, jackpots, exclusive content and rewards underpin strong growth; cross-sell pipeline remains robust .
Guidance quality: Despite adverse sports results, Group guidance raised on M&A and FX; U.S. trimmed but normalized margin assumptions maintained; watch cadence (H2 heavier EBITDA) .
Capital returns and leverage: $230M buybacks in Q1; medium-term leverage target 2.0–2.5x reaffirmed; available cash ~$1.5B; near-term leverage uptick from Snai to decline with EBITDA scaling .
Regional diversification: SEA/CEE strength and India iGaming growth offset APAC sportsbook/Australia racing softness; Brazil friction transitory with NSX integration to enhance position .
Risk management: Sports result volatility is transitory; maintain focus on net revenue, disciplined generosity, and product-led margin expansion; expect results to revert toward expected outcomes over time .
Near-term trading lens: Expect estimate resets on Q1 miss and sports-result commentary; catalysts include broader “Your Way” rollout, Italy synergy proof points, lotto tender outcome, and continued share repurchases .

Flutter Entertainment plc (FLUT)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary